It is easy to imagine different benefits and applications of human behavioral models embedded in Computer Generated Forces both for training and operational planning.
These models are able to support planners and CAX team for complete an extensive analysis of complex scenarios considering PMESII “layers” over a geographic area. It is easy to manage events involving million of people and their human factors and attitudes towards other actors in the scenario because every entity is moving and acting autonomously based on behavioral models, boundary conditions, perception of the reality and rules of engagements assigned.
In fact it is critical to remember, as already mention, that these models are far from being crystal balls able to predict a specific event; therefore they are very powerful in investigating alternative course of actions and estimating risks and probabilities as well as considering interactions among the thousands of factors that are affecting humans; these models so represent an important support and, based on the accumulated experience on several projects, they are very effective especially when operated by users with deep knowledge of their operative domain: in this context the IA-CGF receive tasks from experts and simulate the mission environment becoming an effective tool for decision makers by providing results that quantify costs/benefits and risks of the different alternatives.
So the benefits are different; in training, by this approach, it becomes possible to reduce manpower and to generate behavior for different units (i.e. grey and red forces, white cell activities) and to check the impact of different challenges on the training audience before to finalize the exercise.
In operational planning the introduction of the human behavioral models allows to consider many more hypotheses and to simulate several course of actions quickly, so the planner skills and experience is more productive being applied on a decision making process based on risk analysis.
In general extending simulation over human behavior domain is the new frontier and these researches are very critical for further extension of M&S to new areas
Within three months from the real event, it was possible to create and simulate a complex mission environment related to Haiti Earthquake where the Port au Prince population (over 2 millions) was modeled and analyzed in term of human factor evolution and behavior respect the crisis and the coalition food distribution operations